Introducing our Consumer Mindset Tracker
Today marks the launch of our monthly Consumer Mindset Tracker which will be released in the first half of every month. The purpose of this is to leverage the wealth of open-banking data that powers our Spendmapper platform to get a clear picture of how consumer spending behaviour is evolving in the UK. This can help us get an insight into consumer confidence, reactions to societal, economic, or seasonal events, and how this ultimately shapes the opportunity available for brands and can inform their marketing strategies.
At a glance: The average UK consumer in March ‘25
A busy news cycle in March left UK consumers with plenty to process. Amid rising inflation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the Bank of England opted to hold interest rates steady at 4.5%. At the same time, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) halved its growth forecast for 2025 to just 1%, while the Chancellor’s Spring Statement signalled potential cuts to welfare spending.
In the face of this increasing pressure on household budgets, UK consumers have proven extremely resilient, and we saw consumer outgoings surge by +12.4% last month to an average of £2,453 per consumer. This also marked the fastest year over year growth to date in 2025 at +11.4%, far ahead of the current inflation rate of +2.6%, which underlines that this is not simply a seasonal trend but indicative of growing consumer confidence and an appetite to indulge.
Critically for brands we found that consumers are increasingly shopping around. This is reflected by the increase in both the number of transactions and the number of different brands that consumers are spending with compared to last month as well as year over year. The average consumer spent across 61 transactions, 7 more times than in February, and across 2 more merchants bringing the total to 29 for March. An expanding brand repertoire indicates that consumers are open to trying new brands which gives you a greater chance of slotting into the shopper basket, whilst increased transactions gives you more opportunities to win.
Consumer spending spree fuels Retail growth
The growth in spend was driven in large part by a significant increase in discretionary spending, rather than rising household bills, particularly across Retail which saw the strongest growth with Jewellery & Accessories, Books & Stationary and a number of Apparel categories leading the charge. This willingness for consumers to treat themselves indicates growing consumer confidence in 2025 as Retail spend constituted 15.2% of total consumer spending in March up significantly from February and year over year.
The relatively strong month over month growth indicates that seasonality is playing a more pronounced role in some categories such as Out of Home and Automotive. Pubs and Restaurants have seen an earlier boom in demand this year thanks to milder weather and a record breaking 185 hours of sunshine in March, and this growth should accelerate in the coming months as warmer weather coaxes consumers back to pub gardens. In addition, the annual release of the new year’s registration plates in March may have contributed to the growing spend with Dealerships.
We saw a slightly diminished consumer appetite for Experiences and Flights in March which appears to reflect the trends of their respective booking cycles. Whilst the former is dependent on the release of new concerts, shows as well as blockbuster movies, for the latter it appears that consumers may have taken advantage of the new year’s sales to book their flights in January and February and are now focusing on accommodation arrangements as Hotel spend grew +27%.
One thing to watch out for is the potentially increased propensity for Britons to buy on credit which can be seen with the surge in Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) spend up +36% alongside +16% growth in Credit Card payments. Payments to BNPL and Credit Cards made up 8.5% of total outgoings, up from 7.9% in February and a year earlier, and this growing reliance on credit may reflect rising financial pressure. While it can support short-term sales, it poses a medium to long-term risk for brands, as overextended consumers may eventually cut back on discretionary spending, default on payments, or become increasingly price sensitive.
Shining a spotlight on Savings & Investments
We also saw the annual surge in deposits into Savings & Investments accounts that marks the end of the tax year with an extra £2.1bn hitting these accounts compared to February as last minute savers make use of their remaining allocation. The strong performance of the category should continue through into April as the Early Allocators make the most of the new tax year allowance, though volatile stock indices at the start of April may encourage would-be investors to hold onto their cash.
18 – 34’s saw the greatest surge in consumer spending
It is important for us to understand demographic differences in evolving spending behaviours, as this reveals the varied impact of developments on consumer mindsets and shapes the opportunities or barriers brands face with their target audiences
The greatest growth in spend can be seen amongst the 18 – 34 age group, particularly year over year which increased +21.5%, which was more than twice as high as for the older age groups. This is an age group that is disproportionately exposed to high rental costs which have surged in the last few years as landlords pass down the costs of increasing mortgage rates, as well as the surging price of a pint which has increased the premium on socialising, pub trips and nights out. However, the month over month growth, which outpaces the rest of the market, underlines that even a £7 pint cannot dampen the spirits of younger consumers who significantly over index for Pub & Bar spend, or prevent them indulging in fast fashion brands’ spring collections.
Whilst there are nuances in the specific breakdown and allocation of funds, the double digit growth in consumer spend in March across the income segments points to a broad-based recovery of consumer confidence and the ability of seasonality to stimulate discretionary spending. However, demand can vary more markedly by geography and whilst we saw spending grow in London and the East of England by +14.6% and +14% respectively, it was a more modest uplift in Wales of only +7.9% in February. Factoring in geographical differences in mindsets can help brands find consumers with the greatest appetite for spending and enable brands to curate creative to ensure resonance.
3 things I’m keeping an eye out for in April:
- Easter Holiday weekend a boon to UK leisure & retail. With the start of April being marked by beaming sunshine consumer spending should have strong momentum in the build up to the bank holiday weekend. The prospect of rain shouldn’t be sufficient to dampen consumer appetite for a pub lunch and some retail therapy.
- Brands capitalising on post-holiday blues. Judging by the volume of OOO’s from my recent email campaign many Brits are already departing on breaks to warmer climates. The return to the reality of work can leave many dreaming of their next escape and it will be interesting to see which brands within the travel category can capitalise on this mindset.
- Tariffs, what tariffs? This scarcely needs touching on given this story has dominated the front pages and the situation seems to change by the day but uncertainty is typically not good for businesses or consumer confidence. To get a finger on the pulse, i’ll be keen to understand how investors and savers allocate their money at the start of the tax year and the balance between smart savings or investment platforms.
Do you have any questions, thoughts or want to get a deeper insight into consumer confidence in the run up to the summer? If so, please reach out and we can take a deeper look into how consumer mindsets are evolving.
What powers our Spendmapper platform?
Our Spendmapper platform, developed in collaboration with award-winning consumer app Snoop, utilises open-banking data which provides visibility of the spending behaviours of over £10bn of UK consumer spend across more than 3,000 of the UK’s biggest merchants within a broad range of categories including Retail, Finance, and Household Bills. Our starting point is the consumer which means that we get a holistic 360° view on how they are managing their household spend, indulging or cutting back across categories, and the retailers that sit in their repertoires.
Glossary:
- Merchant: This reflects spend at a vendor who is taking the payment which can include particular retailers, restaurants, service or financial providers e.g. Tesco, Pizza Express, ASOS, Aviva Life Insurance, Klarna.
- Consumer Monthly Spend: This reflects the average amount of outgoings seen from a customer’s account in a month. This covers all outgoings from Retail and Leisure spend to Household Bills, Mortgage Payments, or Savings deposits.
