10 Key Takeaways for the Black Friday & Holiday Season | Part 2

The Final Countdown Begins

Welcome back as we journey onwards aboard our insights sleigh through some of the most important themes that we observed in the holiday season 2024. If you’re joining us for the first time, be sure to check out Part 1. 

In the first half we underlined the massive size of the prize available for brands & retailers in the final 2 months leading up to Christmas which provides ample opportunity to spark long-term relationships with new customers and extract value from your passionate core audiences.

But as we peel back more doors on our advent calendars, consumer behaviour continues to evolve. In this second part, we explore how brands can pivot to win in the final stretch of the season as shopper missions change, looming delivery deadlines shape channel preference, and demographic factors influence how we celebrate.

6. How can you tell if your gift was bought last minute?

The final surge in shopper demand comes during the last full week of trading before Christmas, as last-minute shoppers tick off the remaining gifts on their to-do lists – spending a massive £6.8 billion. Interestingly, Britons shopped more frequently during this week than they did over Black Friday, though the average basket size was 10% lower. This reflects the focus on lower-cost gifts – and, dare I say, lower-priority giftees.

The strongest performers in the final two weeks were Bookshops (+15%), Jewellery & Accessories (+13%), and High Street Health & Beauty (+12%). To (poorly) paraphrase a Harry Potter quote: why is it, when someone needs a last-minute gift, it’s always you three? So, if you unwrap a present and find yourself face to face with the latest Sally Rooney novel, a Baylis & Harding bath set, or a Pandora charm – you now know exactly where you stood in your loved ones’ gift hierarchy.

To maximise sales in these final festive days, brands must understand how consumer missions evolve as Christmas approaches. This period is a golden opportunity for brick-and-mortar retailers, who can succeed by aligning their calls to action and in-store merchandising with the motivations and emotions of these harried, last-minute shoppers – guiding them toward quick, thoughtful solutions.

7. The rush for the delivery deadline.

There is a force much more powerful than price promotions or emotional marketing, and that’s the looming spectre of the Christmas postal service. Delivery deadlines and the risk of disappointment can momentarily stem the seemingly unstoppable demand for online orders.

Examining the 10 biggest online native retailers we find that sales dropped on average -32.1% in the final 2 weeks of the holiday season compared to only -3.3% for all other Retailers. Even in the final full week of trading pre-Christmas 7 of the 10 online natives saw their sales decline, an average of -11.6% across the set, as the rest of the category surged +12.6% with consumers rushing for their last-minute gifts. 

Amazon and ASOS proved most resilient in the final 2 weeks thanks seemingly due to their late delivery guarantees. These delivery solutions will be vital for any online natives looking to tap into the late shopper demand. But on the flip side this provides a great opportunity for brick-and-mortar retailers to really sweat their physical assets. Marketeers should look to leverage their social media content or platforms’ live social shopping functionality to help connect with despairing digital first consumers and help them find the solutions in store.

Finally a key lookout from 2024 is the rising competition from online marketplaces. These retailers saw the fastest YoY growth in the holiday season +29%, equivalent to an additional £2.6bn, and we can expect them to have an even bigger role this year through the holiday period. TikTok Shop in particular provides both a threat and an opportunity for brands as more than a third of shoppers have bought via the social commerce platform in the last 12 months. In addition, the likes of eBay, Vinted, and Etsy were amongst the best performers in 2024 as consumers sought unique or personalised presents that above all provide bang for their buck.

8. Christmas is a time when we seek connection.

It’s been a difficult 2025 for the hospitality sector. Rising prices have weakened the value proposition of on-premise venues and seen consumers directing their spend to other outlets with a stronger happiness dividend. As a result whilst Retail, Travel & Leisure activities have seen a boom in demand across the first 6 months of the year, hospitality spend has grown only +0.4%, whilst consumers are actually eating out less with transactions dropping -2.4%.

The holiday season promises a reprieve from these blues and a chance to remind consumers how eating and drinking out helps us forge memories, celebrate the year’s achievements, and spend well earned time with our loved ones. Last year was another success for hospitality as it raked in just shy of £5bn in December as the average consumer spent out 7.5 times and drove the category to +13.2% growth YOY.

With 4 of the 5 biggest weeks of the year for the sector falling in December, culminating in the last full week of trading before Christmas, the pressure on brands is intense. This period is most important for on-premise venues with Restaurants & Pubs growing +8%, and Pubs raking in over £220m in the last 2 weeks thanks to the plethora of occasions to get together with colleagues, friends and family.

On-premise venues should look to tap into the mutually beneficial relationship that exists with Retail. Brands can prime consumers ahead of time with tailored promotions, geo-targeted ads to encourage visits after shopping, or offer shoppers a cosy respite from the bustling high street where they can recharge their batteries.

9. I’m trading up for Christmas, oh I can’t wait to eat those M&S trimmings.

Okay so that is a bit hamfisted and doesn’t quite work but you get the point. Whilst Kevin the Carrot may win hearts and minds with his TV ads, he can’t compel people to go to the tills and Aldi’s market share takes a beating in December losing 1.1pts and 1pt of share compared to November in 2023 and 2024 respectively. 

This is part of a broader seasonal trend, whilst the Discounters’ sales increase in December they lag behind the rest of the market growing a modest +13.2% versus +28.3% for the other Grocers. Yet the 2024 performance of the Discounters was a marked improvement on the modest single digit growth of the previous year and can provide some encouragement.

By far the three biggest winners of the season over the past 2 years are M&S (+1.3pts), Tesco (+0.7pts), and Waitrose (+0.6pts), reflecting a clear consumer desire to indulge and treat themselves and their loved ones over the Christmas period. For the Grocers and the brands stocked on their shelves, demonstrating quality will be key to enable shoppers to buy with confidence and assure consumers that they can take pride in their Christmas fare. 

The scale of the revenue in this period is breathtaking with the major supermarkets seeing £17.6bn pass through their tills in December. For these Grocers the opportunity peaks in the last 2 weeks running up to Christmas where weekly sales are £4.5bn and 4.3bn respectively. This is due to the soaring basket size value and a period in which the average consumer spends c. £108 each week as they do their final big shops and pick up more expensive items. 

Even as those last minutes tick away supermarkets can drive sales by tapping into those incremental ‘just in case’ or ‘adding those finishing touches’ purchase occasions. Brands need not limit their messaging to expectant hosts and can focus creative around their product ranges such as hampers, aperitifs, and wine that people can bring to ensure they can ‘be the #1 guest this Christmas’ and ‘get invited back next year’.

10. Unwrapping demographic differences.

Whilst we have to be wary not to fall into the trap of oversimplifying the complexity of shopper behaviour down to a demographic profile, even when we take a broad view of shopping habits based on factors such as age, income and location we begin to see interesting differences emerge.

The data underlines the universal appeal of Black Friday & Cyber Monday for all age groups with each segment seeing their spending peak with the first week of December. The 18-34 and 35-54 age groups saw the greatest uplift in that fortnight, growing +48% and +47% respectively, but the 55+ segment saw spend increase at only a marginally slower rate of +33% equivalent to an extra £28 per person. 

The 55+ shopper group seems more considered and patient in their holiday shopping as their spend has far more limited fluctuations in the final 4 weeks consistently ranging between £2.4bn and £2.6bn each week. In contrast, the Last Minute & Panic Shoppers are far more likely to be 18 – 34, representing nearly 25% of all spend in the final days, as they are forced to switch from their preferred online platforms and turn to the high street for solutions.

The importance of these age groups for brands across categories is shaped by their role through the holiday season. For instance, we find that for Grocery that the 18 – 35 age group represents only 17% of spend in the final weeks as they assume their role of hostee for the holidays and the burden falls on their parents and older relatives. It is the 55+ age group in particular who spends the most in the last 2 weeks – over £130 per person each week – underlining the personal importance of the holidays which gives them the opportunity to bring together their loved ones and a reason to splash out on all the trimmings.

The Ghost of Christmas Future.

Like Scrooge, the fate of your holiday season in 2025 is in your hands and there is still time to put into practice everything you have learned from the holiday seasons past and set your brand up for success.

Your brand doesn’t exist in isolation and the opportunities available are intrinsically linked to the broader digital landscape, high street and the holiday shopper’s basket. You can win by understanding how the needs, challenges, and demand of your audiences evolves through the season and pivoting to drive short term ROI alongside longer term growth.

Whether you are reading this in sunny August or rainy November we’d love to hear from you if you have any questions, thoughts or want to dig deeper into any of the insight as we approach the holiday season.

How can Starcount help ease your holiday blues and get you set up for success?